Solana’s $2 Billion Token Unlock: Is Your SOL Portfolio Safe on March 1?

Solana (SOL) is nearing its unlock event on March 1, releasing 11.2 million tokens worth about $2.07 billion. Notably, this comes to 2.29% of the total supply; a sizable cliff unlock.

As the cryptocurrency market reacts to this event, traders anticipate increased volatility through mid-March. In the meantime, technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, backing up the uncertainty around SOL’s price movement.

2/ 11.2m SOL unlocks in early March between FTX Estate and a foundation sale outside of the Estate (this dash doesn’t break down the attribution) pic.twitter.com/QF0RMPSdwD

— Kelly Greer (@kellyjgreer) February 16, 2025

Large Unlock Size & Potential Market Pressure

The upcoming unlock includes tokens from the FTX Estate and a separate foundation sale.

Even so, the release is just 0.01% of Solana’s total market capitalization, which is now $90.45 billion. However, the unlock size is nearly 59% of the daily spot trading volume, pointing to possible supply pressure on the market.

The market reaction to this event has been clear, with traders shorting SOL before the release. Funding rates highlight the bearish sentiment, showing that market participants expect price fluctuations.

Adding to this, SOL remains far below its all-time high, lagging behind Bitcoin’s performance. Traders aiming to navigate this volatility may think about hedging strategies or using potential price dips.

4/ “why is SOL so far off ATH relative to BTC” – look at the funding rates – the market is shorting into this event

(there are other ways to hedge OTC outside of perpetuals as well)

so expect volatility through mid March – embrace it and buy the dip, hedge prior, or hold… pic.twitter.com/COtjstOJGR

— Kelly Greer (@kellyjgreer) February 16, 2025

Future, Smaller Unlocks Still on Horizon

Looking beyond the March event, more unlocks are scheduled for the coming months.

On April 1, a smaller release of 12.7K SOL, valued at $2.35 million, will happen. Similarly, on May 1, another 73.7K SOL, worth $13.65 million, will be unlocked. Although these releases are minor compared to the March unlock, they still add to the overall circulating supply.

Right now, 97.52% of all token unlocks have been completed, leaving little room for future large-scale events. With 488.4 million SOL currently circulating, the total allocation is $88.22 billion, showing the blockchain’s strong market position. However, short-term price action remains uncertain because of external market factors and trading sentiment.

Technicals Show Continued Downside Risk

At the time of writing, Solana’s price has dropped to $184.33, reflecting a 3.14% decline over the past 24 hours. In the past week, SOL has fallen by 11.55%, showing sustained downward pressure.

SOL/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView

Solana’s technical indicators suggest continued downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36.23, nearing the oversold region. If it drops below 30, it could signal a potential reversal.

The MACD indicator also reflects bearish momentum, with the MACD line positioned below the signal line. Unless a bullish crossover occurs, SOL could face additional selling pressure.

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