XRP coils up ahead of key SEC deadline as traders watch for breakout 

XRP is trading in a tight range as attention turns to a key upcoming court deadline in the long-running SEC vs. oRipple case.

XRP (XRP) is trading at $2.26 at press time, down 1.2% daily and hovering near the midpoint of its weekly range between $2.09 and $2.33. Despite muted price action, the asset is still above a key support and showing signs of compression, often a sign of impending volatility.

A slight decrease in market participation is indicated by the spot trading volume, which is down 4.1% from the previous day. However, data from Coinglass shows derivatives volume rose 9.6% to $5.06 billion, while open interest dipped 2.6% to $4.12 billion. This combination suggests that some traders are locking in gains or hedging against volatility, while others are cautiously re-entering positions ahead of a possible catalyst.

That catalyst may soon arrive. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is due to submit a settlement progress update to the Court of Appeals by June 16 as part of its long-running case against Ripple. So far, there’s been little movement on the legal front since Judge Analisa Torres rejected the agency’s request for an indicative ruling.

Hopes for a resolution have dimmed, though the SEC has a history of filing motions at the last minute. A decision to withdraw its appeal could sharply improve XRP’s legal clarity and reopen the path toward an XRP spot exchange-traded fund, an outcome already priced in by some market participants. On Polymarket, the odds of an XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025 currently stand at 86%, with a 26% chance priced in for approval by July 31.

From a technical perspective, XRP is coiling just above its 20-day moving average, where it’s spent much of the past week. The tightening of the Bollinger Bands indicates that volatility has decreased and that a more significant move may be about to occur.

XRP price analysis. Credit: crypto.news

The price is flirting with a group of short-term resistance levels between $2.26 and $2.30, and it is currently trading just below the 50-day estimated moving average. Bulls will require greater momentum to break through this zone, but a clear break above it would open the path toward $2.50.

With the relative strength index hovering around 49, the market appears to be neutral but slightly inclined toward recovery. The MACD, meanwhile, is almost above the signal line, indicating that buying pressure is gradually building.

If legal clarity leads to new inflows, a bullish break above $2.33 might bring $2.50 back into play. On the downside, XRP may fall toward the lower end of its recent range, close to $2.10, where buyers have previously stepped in if it is unable to maintain $2.20.

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