XRP ETF Odds Hit 85% as Price Holds $2.20 and Targets $3.00

XRP token has seen increased institutional support as the odds of a spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval rise. The market’s confidence has skyrocketed since approval odds skyrocketed from 65% to 85% in under two months.

Source: Polymarket

Institutional Push for Spot XRP ETFs

Grayscale submitted its S-1 document to the SEC to convert its XRP trust and began a 45-day review process.

Bitwise obtained formal acceptance to launch its physically-backed XRP ETP. These developments followed the SEC’s extension of the Franklin Templeton decision deadline to June 17. Meanwhile, investors have maintained positive expectations.

The approval numbers for a spot XRP ETF have risen after Grayscale and Bitwise made their application public to convert their XRP investment vehicles.

Futures ETFs Show Growing Exposure

Beyond spot products, institutional exposure to XRP derivatives has also been rising. ProShares launched three XRP futures-based ETFs, including leveraged and inverse options, with these products already trading in U.S. markets.

While not spot-based, they demonstrate increasing institutional interest in XRP.

Technical Structure Supports Breakout Toward $3.00

Looking at the chart, XRP has held its price at $2.20 through the combined support of its 50—and 100-day EMAs.

The technical analysis indicators suggest bullish price trends. The MACD indicator indicates a buy signal after its main line surpasses the signal line. The positive histogram expansion further indicates additional price growth potential.

The descending trendline established earlier this year remains an essential barrier to price growth. Market participants observe this price point to determine whether an XRP value surpassing $3.00 will occur. However, short-term resistance is likely around $2.50 and $2.80, where profit-taking may slow gains.

Source: TradingView

Regulatory Developments Shape Outlook

The new leadership at the SEC has positively impacted consumer perception. On April 21, SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins gained approval as head of the commission, strengthening attitudes toward crypto investment products. The betting platform Polymarket shows a 79% likelihood that the SEC will approve an XRP ETF before the end of this year. Market trends indicate that the SEC could approve a spot product.

Despite momentum, challenges remain. According to Santiment, XRP has lost its social dominance over the last three months, which can constrain price changes driven by retail investors.

Downside Support Levels

If XRP price descends below $2.20, technical support levels are key. XRP will likely receive support from its 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $1.99. If that level fails, price could move down towards support levels near $1.61.

Beyond price and technicals, XRP holds a strong market position. It continues to rank as the fourth biggest crypto overall.

XRP’s circulating supply stands at 58.5 billion tokens out of a maximum of 100 billion with the token’s fully diluted valuation estimated at $221.27 billion.

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