XRP US Reserve Talk Grows: Polymarket Shows 18% Chance for 2025 Adoption

States might incorporate XRP into its national reserves before the close of 2025. As of mid-May, data from the prediction market Polymarket indicated an 18% probability of XRP being adopted as a US reserve asset this year.

This current likelihood reflects a 4% increase from earlier trading levels on the platform, underscoring a notable uptick in speculative interest regarding XRP’s potential role within governmental frameworks.

Polymarket Reflects Shifting Sentiment on XRP US Reserve Status

Polymarket’s charted probabilities have shown sharp shifts throughout the year. The likelihood peaked above 35% in early March before a significant drop. Since April, the probability has remained between 15% and 20%, signaling more consistent sentiment despite ongoing market debates.

Source: Polymarket

The market has recorded over $549,000 in total trading volume on this question, indicating notable engagement from participants monitoring policy and institutional developments in the crypto sector.

The timing aligns with broader developments in crypto-related policy in the U.S., including discussions around stablecoin legislation, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and the legal status of digital assets like XRP.

Expert Weighs Potential Impact and Hurdles for XRP Adoption

This follows a recent announcement by wealth manager and digital asset commentator Connor McLaughlin, who, during a financial broadcast, addressed the potential implications of a U.S. XRP reserve. He explained that the impact would largely depend on the government’s intent, whether it serves as a general investment or supports a deeper liquidity-based partnership. McLaughlin noted that the latter could signal a more advanced level of integration with federal operations.

McLaughlin also noted that internal disagreement may have slowed any momentum. He added that there is uncertainty around whether such discussions were paused due to possible controversy or were ultimately shelved. However, he acknowledged that broader adoption trends could lead to renewed consideration.

Despite rising market odds and isolated signals, there is no formal indication that the U.S. will adopt XRP as a reserve asset. Recent online reactions to President Donald Trump’s statements triggered renewed speculation, though no official policies have been announced.

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