Bitcoin Holds Above 200-Day EMA: Will a $90K Rally Follow?

Bitcoin (BTC) price sustains above 200-day EMA and teases a comeback rally above $90k. Will this reversal in BTC price hit the 50-day EMA?

Bitcoin bounces back to the $87,000 mark with a 24-hour surge of 4.25% as the crypto market witnesses an overnight recovery. The recovery run in Bitcoin signals a potential boost.

However, the increased price fluctuations and uncertainty in the market and the changing global dynamics warn of a potential downfall. Amid such warnings, will the Bitcoin price maintain the recovery rally?

High Volatility Drives Bitcoin to Turbulent Waves

The increased fluctuations in the crypto market have been making massive waves over the past few days. In the past week, the Bitcoin price has fluctuated from a low of $78,197 with a 7-day high of $95,152.

On March 4, Bitcoin bounced off from a 24-hour low at $81,463 to reach a closing price of $87,240. With the increased price fluctuations, Bitcoin fluctuates near the 200-day EMA line.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at a market price of $87,040 with a minor intraday pullback of 0.23%.

As Bitcoin struggles to maintain dominance above the 200-day EMA line, the prevailing downfall warns of a potential bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day EMA lines. However, the daily RSI line maintains a sideways shift slightly below the halfway level.

Despite the ongoing uncertainty and volatility, the 7-day price range is proving crucial as both support and resistance levels. The 7-day low of $78,197 could act as an important support level if Bitcoin falls below the 200-day EMA.

On the bullish side, the 50-day EMA, around the $94,000 mark, could serve as a key overhead resistance level.

Analyst Signals Clear Skies Ahead For Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price action remains uncertain due to increased volatility. However, crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests that a bullish rebound is possible. Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s tendency to recover when the loss margin hits a negative 12%.

Currently, data from Santiment shows the trader realized price and profit-loss margin at a negative 15.4%, indicating a strong possibility of a bullish rebound, as the market is significantly oversold.

#Bitcoin $BTC has historically rebounded when the trader loss margin reaches -12%. Right now, it’s sitting at -15.4%, signaling a potential reversal! pic.twitter.com/tzbNxY1LIp

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 4, 2025

Furthermore, the analyst points to the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio as a tool for identifying potential buy-the-dip opportunities.

According to Martinez, the Sharpe ratio typically resets to a low-risk phase after reaching a high-risk zone. Currently, the Sharpe ratio is undergoing a similar pullback after a high-risk phase.

#Bitcoin $BTC Sharpe Ratio typically resets to “Low Risk” after hitting “High Risk.” This could be the time to start setting cash aside and get ready for a potential buy-the-dip opportunity! pic.twitter.com/PrDsfy3Eic

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 4, 2025

Institutional Outflows in BTC Spot ETFs Continue

Meanwhile, institutional outflow in U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs continues on March 4. The latest data shows that the daily total net outflow on March 4 stood at $143.43 million.

Bitcoin ETFs

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was the only ETF on March 4 to record an inflow, amounting to $35.77 million. Fidelity led the outflows with $46.08 million, followed by ARK and 21Shares with $43.92 million in outflows.

Franklin, Bitwise, Invesco, and WisdomTree recorded outflows of $35.71 million, $23.96 million, $16.47 million, and $13.07 million, respectively. The remaining five Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock, reported no net outflow.

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