Bitcoin price outlook: Long-term $120k trendline test could define Q3

Bitcoin is nearing a historically significant resistance level at $120,000. This multi-year trendline has capped price since 2021, making the coming wseeks pivotal for BTC’s long-term direction.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is inching toward a major high time frame resistance level that has historically dictated market tops and key reversals. This dynamic resistance, in play since April 2021, is once again being tested after two significant rejections over the past few years.

With price action now pushing toward the $120,000 zone, the next several weeks could define whether BTC breaks into new all-time highs or retraces back into its established macro range.

Key technical points

• $120,000 Dynamic Resistance: Multi-year descending trendline from April 2021, respected in both 2021 and 2024.
• $73,000 High Time Frame Support: Range low support acting as the major pivot zone in the event of a rejection.
• Historical Behavior: Each retest of this resistance has led to major long-term consolidations or corrections.

BTCUSDT (12D) Chart, Source: TradingView

The dynamic resistance currently hovering around the $120,000 mark has historical significance. It was first established in April 2021, when Bitcoin topped out during the previous bull market. The second major interaction occurred in December 2024, where BTC again tested this level and failed to break through, forming a precise rejection wick at the trendline. These repeated interactions affirm the strength and technical relevance of this resistance.

Now, in mid to late 2025, Bitcoin is once again grinding toward this region. While this approach hasn’t yet triggered a breakout, the fact that price has maintained a bullish structure while approaching it suggests potential for a high-stakes breakout, or yet another rejection that could reintroduce range-bound trading.

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From a long-term trading perspective, this resistance should be seen as a make-or-break inflection point. If BTC is able to decisively break through and close above the $120,000 level on strong volume, it would represent a structural shift in market behavior and likely initiate a new phase of price discovery. However, if history repeats and the trendline holds once more, the probability of a return to the $73,000 support zone increases substantially.

It’s also essential to recognize the time scale of this chart. Since this is a high time frame structure, each candle may take days or even weeks to finalize, meaning short-term moves are not sufficient to confirm a breakout or breakdown. Patience is required until full candle closures validate the next major direction.

What to expect in the coming price action

If Bitcoin fails to break the $120,000 dynamic resistance, expect consolidation or a pullback toward $73,000. A confirmed breakout above $120,000 would shift the structure entirely and require fresh analysis.

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