Bitcoin Rebound Above $100K Not Driven by Fundamentals, On-Chain Data Shows

The recent Bitcoin surge back above the $100,000 mark may be due to speculative leverage rather than organic spot demand, according to new on-chain data.

Analytic platform Glassnode raised concerns about the rally’s sustainability, suggesting that speculative trading, not fundamental buying, is behind the move.

Leverage, Not Organic Demand, Pushed Bitcoin Higher

Earlier this month, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100K for the first time in 12 weeks. However, it quickly rebounded, reaching $108,300 before undergoing a new correction. In a detailed report analyzing current market trends, Glassnode highlighted key factors driving this volatility.

One notable observation was that Bitcoin futures volume remained elevated during the recent surge. This indicates that short-term holders and active traders were significantly involved. However, this activity came with a caveat: a noticeable decline in momentum.

Specifically, futures volume has been trending downward for several weeks, suggesting fatigue in the derivatives market. While leverage-driven trading still dominates, the intensity of this activity has declined compared to historical levels.

Chart of Bitcoin Futures Volume by Glassnode

More importantly, both funding rates and the 3-month rolling futures basis, key indicators of bullish sentiment, have also been falling. This decline suggests a move toward less aggressive long positioning.

Spot Volume Also Dipping

In contrast to previous rallies in Q2 2025 and Q4 2024, Bitcoin’s recent move was not accompanied by a surge in spot market activity. At its peak of $111,900 in May, spot volume remained relatively subdued, at around $7.7 billion, well below the previous cycle highs that exceeded $20 billion.

BTC spot volume chart

This divergence highlights a lack of new capital entering the market from long-term holders or retail investors. Glassnode suggests that this may be due to investor hesitation, which strengthens the case for consolidation rather than continued upward momentum.

What Does It Mean for Bitcoin’s Uptrend?

As the futures market contributed to price increases, the quality of participation appears weaker than earlier in the cycle. Traders remain engaged but with less conviction and greater caution. Notably, the drop in spot demand and the decline in funding rates highlight a market structure that is vulnerable to correction.

In essence, the current setup suggests Bitcoin’s recent highs are less about renewed belief in its fundamentals and more about leveraged positioning. It’s a sign that the market may require a reset before its next major move.

Institutional Buying Paints a Mixed Picture

Interestingly, the on-chain data contrasts with recent developments in institutional adoption. More companies than ever are announcing new Bitcoin acquisitions.

This week alone, firms such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and ProCap BTC acquired $1 billion in BTC. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs purchased over $1.5 billion worth of BTC during the same period.

Amid this institutional buying spree, Glassnode now reports that the amount of Bitcoin readily available for acquisition has dropped to just 7 million BTC, indicating that around 14 million BTC are held by long-term investors.

This buying pressure could support further price appreciation, even though the risk of a short-term correction remains.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $106,554, down 0.9% on the day.

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