BTC May 2025 Outlook: Resistance Ahead as Coinbase Premium Gap Slips to -5.07

Bitcoin’s price prediction for May 2025 presents a mixed picture, as the leading cryptocurrency trades near $94,338, reflecting a slight -0.42% daily decline.

While BTC holds near recent highs, analysis reveals short-term caution signs clashing with resilient on-chain support, shaping the potential price path this month.

Coinbase Premium Dip Signals US Investor Caution for May

A key indicator of US market sentiment, the Coinbase Premium Gap, flashed a warning sign with a sharp -5.07 drop. This metric, which measures the price difference of BTC on Coinbase versus global exchanges, had recently rebounded, indicating easing bearish pressure.

However, the latest dip into negative territory points to a shift in sentiment, possibly as US whales take profits or rotate into cash.

Historically, negative Coinbase Premium can precede price weakness. Seeing this selling pressure emerge as Bitcoin nears the critical $95k-$100k resistance zone could hinder immediate breakout attempts in May.

Related: Cardano Makes Big Leap as Bitcoin Moves Cross-Chain Without Bridge

BTC Technical Analysis: Bollinger Bands & MACD Suggest Pullback

Bitcoin’s technical analysis also points towards a potential cooling-off period for May. BTC is pulling back from the upper Bollinger Band, which recently acted as resistance around $100,000.

The price is still above the mid-band (20-day SMA) at $92,367, which now serves as a critical short-term support. If this level holds, bulls may defend the $92K–$94K region and attempt a rebound.

Source: TradingView

On the other hand, the MACD line (blue) has crossed below the signal line (orange), and histogram bars have turned red—indicating a loss of bullish momentum.

Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for May 7: Is the Uptrend Losing Momentum?

A close below the $92,000 level could expose BTC to a deeper retracement toward the lower Bollinger Band near $84,122. If BTC stabilizes above the mid-band and regains upward MACD momentum, the price could retest $96K, with a potential breakout toward $100K.

On-Chain Metrics Reflect Consolidation, Not Capitulation

While technical and market sentiment indicators flash caution, Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals tell a more resilient story.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has pulled back to its long-term mean of 1.74. Historically, this level has marked consolidation phases rather than outright downturns. The August 2024 reset showed similar behavior, ultimately giving way to a price recovery.

#Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has pulled back to its long-term mean of 1.74, a key reset level historically associated with consolidation phases. This marks a cooling of unrealized gains, similar to the August 2024 unwind, and could serve as support if held. pic.twitter.com/HCYR8KSvaD

— glassnode (@glassnode) May 5, 2025

Low Capitulation Risk Seen in On-Chain Profitability Metrics

Other on-chain metrics support this view of resilience, suggesting low capitulation risk. Despite recent corrections, around 88% of BTC supply remains in profit.

Losses are mostly isolated among recent buyers in the $95K–$100K range, implying that broader market capitulation has not occurred.

Additionally, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (RPLR) has bounced back above the neutral 1.0 level. An RPLR above 1.0 means that, on aggregate, more profit-taking is occurring on-chain than loss-taking, further signaling a lack of broad market panic.

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