Why Is Bitcoin Price Dropping Despite Market Rebound?

The crypto market remains under pressure as investors react to economic uncertainties and ongoing trade war concerns. Bitcoin, currently trading around $84,000, has experienced a period of correction alongside the broader crypto market, with total market capitalization climbing 2.44% to $2.76 trillion. While some sellers are exiting, uncertainty remains over whether the current rebound can hold.

Every Bitcoin Bear Market Since 2015

Since 2015 there have been 10 Bitcoin bear markets, defined as a 20% decline from ATH. About one every year, these are common.

Of those, only 4 have been worse than this one in terms of duration: 2018, ’21, ’22, ’24.

In terms of… pic.twitter.com/ywVw8InId0

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 22, 2025

Analyst Predicts a 90-Day Bear Market

Market analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin’s recent downturn is relatively mild compared to past bear markets. Defined as a 20% drop from an all-time high, this pullback is weaker in magnitude than historical declines and is expected to last only 90 days. Peterson analyzed ten previous bear markets, noting that only four were worse in terms of duration—2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

He argues that despite short-term price drops, Bitcoin’s adoption trends remain strong, making a deep decline below $50,000 unlikely. He also suggests that BTC may not fall below $80,000 based on momentum. Peterson predicts a possible slide over the next 30 days, followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15. This rally could bring renewed investor interest and push Bitcoin to new highs.

Trade War Fears Impact Investor Sentiment

The recent bloodbath caused due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on multiple trading partners. These tariffs have triggered retaliatory measures across the globe, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war. Investors are now moving away from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, as macroeconomic conditions are not good.

In the meanwhile, Data from Glassnode’s Hot Supply metric, which tracks BTC held for a week or less, shows a sharp decline from 5.9% in November 2024 to 2.3% in March 2025. This suggests a drop in speculative trading and highlights weak market sentiment. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard warns that crypto markets may face trade war-related pressures until at least April 2025, when negotiations could ease tensions.

Retail Traders Already Invested, Limiting Further Gains

Another factor weighing on Bitcoin’s price is the lack of fresh retail investment. According to CryptoQuant, most retail traders are already exposed to BTC, diminishing hopes of a sudden influx of capital to drive prices higher.

✦ Ongoing challenges for the crypto industry may last until January 2026:

The cryptocurrency sector is likely to face ongoing debanking challenges in the U.S. until January 2026, according to blockchain regulatory experts. Following the collapse of crypto-friendly banks in…

— ZoneCrypto (@_ZoneCrypto_) March 22, 2025

Plus, the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset is being challenged, as its price has reacted negatively to tariff news, falling alongside other risk assets. Regulatory challenges persist as well, with experts predicting that U.S. crypto banking restrictions could last until January 2026, despite efforts to push for clearer regulations.

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