Donald Trump regains popularity against Kamala Harris on prediction markets

The United States 2024 presidential election has been fiercely disputed since Kamala Harris surged to become Donald Trump‘s adversary. People have turned to prediction markets to gather insights into each candidate’s popularity, while traders speculate on the outcome.

In particular, the Cryptocurrency-based Polymarket has gained popularity by offering bets in the regulated dollar stablecoin USDC. With the highest speculative volume, experts have deemed this prediction market more accurate than surveys and polls.

On September 4, Finbold gathered data from Polymarket‘s dedicated analysis page for the U.S. elections, currently favoring Donald Trump. As observed, Trump now opens an advantage against Harris, with a 52% chance of victory versus her 47% odds.

This comes nearly one month after the Democrat candidate surpassed the Republican candidate for the first time on August 10. Donald Trump regained the leadership on August 21, keeping a tight advantage over Kamala Harris for the last few days.

Polymarket‘s 2024 presidential election bet

Essentially, Polymarket‘s data results from a free trading market used by traders worldwide who place their bets by buying shares. Each winning share will pay one dollar in USDC, and traders can purchase them at a floating exchange rate.

As of this writing, Donald Trump’s “yes” bet costs nearly $0.52, translating to the prediction market’s winning chance. If Trump wins the election, everyone who bets on “yes” now will profit $0.48 per share.

Overall, traders placed $794.25 million in bets for the presidential election winner, estimated to finish on November 4, 2024. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have $103.96 million and $95.83 million, respectively, for both “yes” and “no” outcomes.

Prediction markets dive deeper into Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s popularity

Besides the raw results, indicating the next United States president, the market also bets on other related predictions.

For example, Polymarket lists each candidate’s popularity in each State. Donald Trump currently leads in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, with 59%, 58%, 53%, and 52%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan with 56% and 59% chance of victory, respectively.

The prediction market is also betting on a 71% chance of Harris winning the popular vote or a 23% chance that the candidates will shake hands in their first debate.

Although prediction markets are rapidly growing in importance, the odds can get increasingly volatile and do not guarantee any outcome.

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