From Election Excitement to Post-Election Doldrums: December on Polymarket

According to data, Polymarket experienced its busiest month ever in November, driven largely by the U.S. Presidential Election. However, December’s activity has cooled off, with trading volumes falling below not only November’s peak but also October’s numbers. Additionally, open interest has sharply declined, dropping from nearly $500 million to a current total of $117 million.

Polymarket Records Post-Election Lull

Polymarket, the blockchain-powered prediction platform saw a surge of activity as bettors speculated on the outcome of the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Unsurprisingly, Polymarket users accurately predicted Donald Trump’s win before Election Day ended. Yet, after the election, the flurry of activity slowed, and volumes have trended downward since.

Polymarket open interest as of Dec. 29, 2024.

Metrics from Dune Analytics reveal that Polymarket has recorded $1.7 billion in trading volume so far this December, with two days left in the month. That figure is far behind November’s $2.57 billion and won’t come close to October’s $2.28 billion by month’s end. On the bright side, December’s total has already surpassed September’s $503 million in total volume.

Despite the drop in trading volume, December saw an increase in the number of monthly active traders. The platform recorded 309,228 active traders this month, up from November’s 293,705. Open interest, however, tells a different story. On Nov. 5, 2024, open interest peaked at an impressive $474 million, but Dune Analytics data shows it has since dwindled to just $117 million.

Polymarket continues to host a variety of politically charged wagers, with bets focused on topics like “Biden’s pardons,” “Which Trump picks will be confirmed,” and “Who will be the speaker of the House?” There are also markets predicting bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements and speculating on potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. With activity slowing after the election, it will be intriguing to see how Polymarket’s metrics evolve as 2025 approaches.

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