What are the odds Donald Trump frees Ross Ulbricht?

As one of his many campaign promises to an audience of Bitcoin enthusiasts in July 2024, incoming US President Donald Trump promised to free Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht on his first day in office. Fast-forward to today and that “day one” promise is just six days away.

Inauguration Day, which this year coincides with Martin Luther King Jr. Day, will see Joe Biden cede the US Presidency to Trump on Monday, January 20.

That will initiate a 24-hour countdown on his commitment to commute the sentence of a man who once owned, prior to his FBI asset forfeiture, the world’s largest darknet marketplace and its 144,000 bitcoins.

Importantly, Trump promised to free Ulbricht from prison — not pardon him. A pardon forgives and absolves a guilty verdict. A commutation or reprieve, in contrast, simply terminate some of the penalty for a crime while retaining the determination of guilt.

Trump, like all politicians, has promised many things that never actually transpired. For example, he promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act, end DACA, charge Mexico for the construction of a border wall, and voluntarily publish his tax returns — none of which happened.

Nevertheless, Bitcoiners are optimistic that Trump will make good on his promise to release Ulbricht from federal prison.

Binary options on a Ross Ulbricht commutation

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, hosts bets on a list of people Trump could pardon in his first 100 days in office. Unfortunately, no major prediction market lists binary options odds on a “day one” pardon or commutation.

Gamblers on Polymarket’s prediction market are trading binary options that rate Ross Ulbricht at a 73% chance of receiving a commutation within 100 days of Trump taking office. Other candidates for a pardon or reprieve, include Eric Adams, Sam Bankman-Fried, Steve Bannon, Roger Ver, and even Trump himself.

Unlike polls, Polymarket odds don’t necessarily reflect the likelihood of real-world outcomes. Anyone can sway betting odds by simply adding crypto assets to the pool. Even more confusingly, the platform claims to prohibit US customers even though most of its bets relate to US issues and are denominated in US dollar proxies like stablecoins.