Altcoin Season on Hold? ETH/BTC Ratio Consolidation Signals Market Caution

The ETH/BTC ratio, used by traders to measure Ethereum’s relative strength to Bitcoin, has remained in a tight consolidation range since mid-May. This highlights the altcoin’s continued underperformance against the market leader.

While this stagnation reflects weakening investor appetite for ETH, it also signals a broader delay in the onset of a full-fledged altcoin season.

Altcoin Season on Hold as ETH Struggles

Readings from the daily chart show that the ETH/BTC ratio has trended within a narrow range since May 13. It faces resistance at 0.026 while finding support at 0.023.

ETH/BTC Ratio. Source: TradingView

This ratio measures ETH’s price performance relative to BTC, indicating which asset is gaining value faster. Historically, sustained gains in the ETH/BTC ratio have served as a precursor to broader altcoin rallies, as ETH often leads the charge in capital rotation beyond BTC.

However, the current sideways trend suggests that traders remain risk-averse and opt to stay concentrated in BTC, especially as geopolitical tensions persist.

This trend is noteworthy because it raises concerns that the highly anticipated altcoin season could be further delayed.

According to a June 18 post on X by Crypto Fella, the analyst emphasized that the ETH/BTC chart is “the most important chart to look at” for anyone anticipating the return of altcoin season.

Readings from the chart provided show the pair hovering around the 0.024 level, where previous cycle bottoms have formed. Similar structures in 2019 and 2020 saw ETH rebound strongly relative to BTC after extended periods of underperformance. However, as Crypto Fella points out, “we need to see some strength before we can see the big reversal.”

ETH/BTC Ratio. Source: X

Therefore, a decisive break above the key resistance at 0.026 is crucial to signaling the start of a broader altcoin resurgence.

Moreover, readings from the Altcoin Season Index indicate that the market remains solidly in a BTC-dominated phase. An altcoin season commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform BTC over a three-month period.

Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain Center

Only 25% have managed to do so over the past 90 days, showing a clear lag in altcoin performance and suggesting that a true altcoin season may still be a long way off.

ETH Struggles Below 20-Day EMA

ETH trades at $2,521 at press time, noting a modest 0.15% gain over the past day. On the ETH/USD one-day chart, the altcoin trades below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming the bearish strength amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The 20-day EMA measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving weight to recent prices. When price trades below the 20-day EMA, it signals short-term bearish momentum and suggests sellers are in control.

If this continues, ETH could fall to $2,424.

ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if demand climbs, ETH’s price could break above its 20-day EMA and rebound toward $2,745.

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