Ethereum Price Analysis: Will September Be A Better Month For ETH Price?

August 2024 has proven to be a challenging month for Ethereum (ETH), marked by declining network fees, underwhelming ETF performance, and difficulties breaking key price levels. As the cryptocurrency faces significant headwinds, the community and investors question its future trajectory. This article delves into the factors behind Ethereum’s recent struggles and what they mean for its long-term prospects.

Ethereum’s Worst Month Since 2020

If analyzing Ethereum’s worst month since the 2020 DeFi Summer, it would be August 2024, particularly concerning network fees. The sharp decline, over 20 times lower than at its peak, is largely attributed to the migration of network activity to Layer 2 (L2) solutions and the introduction of blobs via ERC 4337. As a result, Ethereum’s once-dominant “Ultra Sound Money” narrative has diminished, with its deflationary supply no longer a standout feature.

By TradingView – ETHUSD_2024-08-31 (5Y)

The drop in network fees has also led to a significant reduction in the rewards for ETH stakers, with the flow of fees down by over 90% in 2024 alone. This has resulted in an annual inflation rate for ETH of 0.7%, a concerning figure given the long-term stagnation in the Ethereum price. However, despite these challenges, Ethereum’s current issuance model is seen by some as sustainable, allowing the network to remain a dominant force in the smart contract ecosystem.

Ethereum ETFs vs Bitcoin ETFs

The launch of Ethereum ETFs was initially met with excitement, but the actual performance has been underwhelming. Data from Farside Investors reveals that interest in Ethereum ETFs has dwindled, with inflows and outflows dropping to near-zero levels. This lack of sustained investor interest contrasts sharply with the anticipation that preceded their launch.

BTC vs ETH ETF Flows – Aug 12 to 30 of 2024

Ethereum ETFs are trading at significantly lower volumes compared to Bitcoin ETFs, raising concerns about their future appeal. Despite Ethereum’s strong market presence, these financial products have failed to capture the attention of investors, who appear more inclined to favor Bitcoin or explore alternatives like Solana. The disappointing performance of Ethereum ETFs highlights the broader market sentiment, where Bitcoin continues to lead, leaving Ethereum and its associated products trailing.

ETH Price Struggle to Break Key Price Levels

ETH price action in August 2024 has been another source of concern. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break past the $2,600 mark, a key resistance level that has turned from a strong support point earlier in the month. This struggle has led to uncertainty about Ethereum’s short-term price direction.

By TradingView – ETHUSD_2024-08-31 (1M)

For Ethereum to regain its momentum, breaking through the $2,600 resistance is crucial. A successful breach could pave the way for a bullish reversal, with the next target at $2,820. However, failure to overcome this resistance could lead to further declines, with the next key support level around $2,310. The market remains closely watched, as these developments will play a critical role in determining Ethereum’s near-term future.

Will September Be A Better Month For ETH Price?

August 2024 has been a tough month for Ethereum, with declining network fees, lackluster ETF performance, and price struggles all contributing to a challenging environment. While these developments raise questions about Ethereum’s future, the network’s dominant position in the smart contract ecosystem and its sustainable issuance model provide some reasons for optimism. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can overcome these challenges and continue to grow, or if it will face further setbacks in an increasingly competitive market.

By TradingView – ETHUSD_2024-08-31 (YTD)

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