Bitcoin Eyes $86k Breakout: Will BTC Price Breakout Run Top $95k?

Bitcoin is eyeing an $86k breakout, with bullish patterns and strong ETF inflows hinting at a potential rally toward the $95k mark.

At $84,883, Bitcoin is signaling a potential recovery with an intraday surge of nearly 1%. The BTC price action suggests forming a new sharp pattern that could drive a rally.

However, the recovery is gradually approaching crucial resistance at $86,000, which has kept the bulls in check over the past week. Will Bitcoin manage to break through and reach the $95,000 mark?

Bitcoin Price Analysis Teases Breakout Run to $95k

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price action shows a breakout rally from a falling wedge pattern, although it struggles to gain momentum. The recent recovery in Bitcoin started from the $76,000 demand zone, overcoming the local resistance trendline.

Bitcoin Price Chart

However, the bullish reversal fails to surpass the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement near $86,150. This crucial resistance has led to multiple higher price projections this week.

Nevertheless, with the intraday recovery followed by Doji formation yesterday, Bitcoin hints at a morning star pattern. This is a trend reversal pattern hinting at a post-retest reversal.

The MACD and signal lines are maintaining a positive flow, supporting the chances of an extended recovery. The average lines are on the verge of entering positive territory with a new cycle of bullish histograms.

Furthermore, the daily RSI line witnesses an uptick after maintaining a sideways shift near the halfway level. This reflects a growth in bullish momentum.

Based on the Fibonacci levels, if Bitcoin surpasses the 61.80% retracement level near $86,150, the uptrend could hit the 78.60% Fibonacci level.

This crucial Fibonacci resistance is close to the $95,000 mark. On the flip side, the crucial support below the trend line remains at a 50% level near the $80,000 mark.

Bitcoin ETFs

As Bitcoin projects a potential extended recovery, Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF specialist, highlights significant positive inflows in Bitcoin ETFs. The analyst noted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has seen a year-to-date inflow of nearly $2.4 billion.

In the 15 months since Bitcoin ETFs’ inception, they’ve faced several selling pressures, including FTX refugees, GBTC discounters, legal unlocks, government confiscations, and macroeconomic turmoil. Despite these challenges, the underlying strength of Bitcoin ETFs remains, increasing the possibility of larger future inflows.

Bitcoin ETFs have eked out positive inflows past month and YTD and $IBIT is +2.4b YTD (Top 1%). Impressive and IMO helps explain why btc’s price has been relatively stable: bc it’s owners are more stable! For the past 15mo the ETFs and Saylor have been buying up all ‘dumps’ from… pic.twitter.com/X40b2bgjEL

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 16, 2025

Analyst Identifies Source of BTC Selling Pressure

As Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, a recent technical insight from Crazzyblockk, an analyst on Cryptoquant, sheds light on real selling pressure in Bitcoin. According to the post, short-term holders are the primary sellers, dumping an average of nearly 930 BTC per day.

In comparison, long-term holders moved 529 BTC per day. This indicates significant supply growth from short-term holders, fueling the current selling pressure.

Furthermore, the analyst highlights that shrimps, fish, and sharks are the biggest sellers based on Wallet Cohort data. Shrimps, holding less than 1 BTC, dump 480 BTC per day, while the fish category, holding 10-200 BTC, dumps 341 BTC daily.

Interestingly, sharks, holding 100-1,000 BTC, drop 402 BTC daily into the market. This suggests that the real selling pressure is coming from smaller and mid-sized investors rather than large whales and long-term holders.

In conclusion, the short-term pullback is a classic example of a short-term holder shakeout.

On-Chain Data Reveals Bitcoin at a Crucial Crossroad

As Bitcoin prepares for a breakout rally, Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, points out that the BTC price is at a crossroads. Based on the In/Out of the Money indicator, Ali highlights that Bitcoin is stuck between two major supply zones.

The demand zone extends from $81,411.38 to $83,868.67, holding 709.3k BTC in 953.84k addresses. On the other hand, the overhead supply zone, extending from $83,975.51 to $86,432.81, holds 718.68k BTC in 1.35 million addresses.

While the volume is similar, the number of addresses on the bearish side is significantly larger. However, if Bitcoin surpasses the $86,000 mark, an uptrend could reach the $93,911.54 to $96,475.68 supply zone, which holds 745.8k BTC in 1.19 million addresses.

#Bitcoin $BTC is caught between two major supply zones: $81,440 and $86,430. pic.twitter.com/x4e3sMu2nx

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 16, 2025

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